Balls that drop to produce lottery numbers, computers that generate lottery numbers. Is one better than the other? There are many people who feel that lottery results are more random or more “natural” with ball picks. Others feel that computer-picked numbers are more consistent. And still others don’t care which method is used to draw a lottery, as long as the numbers match their ticket and they win. But is there really any advantage to using ball drops or blowers over a computer? Is the random factor the same? Does the way numbers are picked influence the outcome at all?
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Aside from regulatory factors that control lotteries, let’s take a look at the two ways lotteries are drawn. The first uses lightweight balls with numbers that are usually in some sort of clear bubble and are mixed around the bowl by blown air. This produces randomness as the balls are constantly and consistently blown and mixed up, until they either enter a tube on their own or are let into a tube by another mechanical means. As such, the balls all have an equal chance to enter the tube.
Computers use a Random Number Generator, or RNG, to simply generate a number within a certain range. Because an RNG is generating thousands or tens of thousands of numbers per second, there is no way of knowing which number will actually be selected as the drawn number.
Now there are some computer programmers who argue that since an RNG is simply a computer program and needs to be started from, you guessed it, a starting point or starting number, that an RNG is not 100% random. And they are right. Whether it is real life randomness or computer randomness, every random event outcome has been influenced by factors that came before it. For an RNG, it is the seed number. For balls, it is the ball that may be sitting on the top right of the pile that gets blown over to the left, hitting another ball and causing it to fall back down onto the blower, etc.
A great example of this is someone playing craps. Humans are naturally ritualistic and habit-programmed. We subconsciously do the same things the same way every time, even if we do consciously decide to do something different. Most of us take the same route to work every day, even signaling our lane changes around the same spot each time. We make coffee or tea the same way, take a shower the same way, even dry ourselves off the same way. We are extreme creatures of habit.
Now, with a craps player, even though shaking the dice and throwing them on the craps table will present an accepted randomness in numbers coming up, here’s what usually really happens. The player picks up the dice and unconsciously positions the dice so the same numbers are facing up towards them. The hold the dice the same way as they are shaking them in their hand. They throw dice in relatively the same way at the same speed and strength every time. This always happens unless they consciously decide to alter any one or more of these actions.
As such, because it is the same subconscious routine throw, the dice fall and roll on the table the same way. Even if results are different each time, the fact remains that due to human habit, the results can be considered not random. The result of the dice throw is dependent on the speed and strength of the throw, which is dependent on how the dice are held in the hand and shaken, which is dependent on the numbers that have been moved to show facing up in the player’s hand.
As this example shows, any random event or outcome is influenced by many events that occurred before it. For a computer RNG, this depends on the seed number. For balls, it depends what ball is located where when the blower starts. On a slightly larger than quantum level, this things matter a great deal. On a realistic normal time/space world that we live in, it makes no difference. We consider these outcomes to be random whether they are mechanical or electronic.
So it really doesn’t matter if a lottery draw is being done by balls or computer. For all real life and regulatory purposes, the outcomes are considered random and it really makes no difference if you play ball or computer lotteries. The outcomes are the same.
Sources
http://theconversation.com/are-powerball-drawings-and-quick-pick-numbers-really-random-53103